One of the most influential predictions for real estate in 2026 has come from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which has forecast a spectacular 14% jump in existing home sales next year, combined with price rises totalling 4%.
One early signal supporting the NAR forecast is the fact that current applications for mortgages are 31% higher than 12 months ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
The sudden increase has been ignited by mortgage costs falling to an average 6.25% in recent weeks.
One of the most optimistic buyer segments is first-time buyers, who are already 32% of the current market, according to separate NAR data.
The predictions for 2026 were made by the association’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, at the NAR NXT conference in Houston.
Underpinning the forecast is the belief mortgage costs would fall to 6% next year, compared with the 2025 average of 6.75%, as calculated by Freddie Mac.
“As we go into next year, the mortgage rate will be a little bit better,” said Mr Yun. “It’s not going to be a big decline, but it will be a modest decline that will improve affordability.”
Mr Yun said the housing sector is set for a major rebound. Consistent employment growth and declining rates would be the foundations of a 14% increase in transaction numbers.
“Next year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales,” he told his audience.
He also gave owners more reason for optimism, saying: “Home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining.” By the end of this year, the average increase in values for 2025 would likely be 3%, he said. Next year, values would rise by 4%.