If you’re seeking to understand the long-term picture for Australian property – either to sell or invest in the months ahead – a good indicator is the building approval data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
While the numbers often fluctuate from month to month, the ABS reports give you a solid trend over time of the number of properties that will be coming onto the market.
They can also help you anticipate an easing of the property crisis that’s pushed values and rents higher.
It’s a valuable national outlook, but your research should also embrace the local dynamics of areas you’re targeting.
For example, if you’re considering buying an apartment, you should scour local media and ask agents whether any big releases of apartments are in the offing.
Why? Because if two or three large blocks of apartments hit the market at the same time, you’ll find values stall at best, and dip at worst. And it could take a while for prices to recover. It’s not your ideal scenario.
In conducting your research, the local outlook is absolutely critical.
It is also pretty obvious that without enormous government stimulus – and there’s no sign of that – the housing situation is unlikely to ease, resulting in the medium-term continuation of rising values and rents.
The latest ABS figures confirm this possibility. It says the total number of dwellings approved fell 3.6% in November to 14,998, following a 5.2% rise in October.
The drop was driven by a large fall in apartment approvals in NSW and Victoria.
Daniel Rossi, ABS head of construction statistics, said: “The fall in dwellings approved was across all residential building types. Approvals for private sector houses fell 1.7%, while private dwellings excluding houses dropped 10.8%.
“Despite the fall, approvals for total dwellings remain 3.2% higher than in November 2023.”
The 1.7% fall in private sector house approvals across Australia (to 9,028 dwellings) follows a 4% fall in October. Despite this, approvals for private sector houses remain 3.8% higher than one year ago.
Queensland was the only state to see growth in private sector house approvals in November, with a 4.3% rise.
Private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 10.8% (to 5,285 dwellings), which was 6.4% lower than one year ago.
The value of total building approvals rose 6.6% (to $14.32 billion), following a 2.3% fall in October.