The first sign of the Canadian real estate market turning the corner has come with a 3.6% lift in the number of home sales and national price averages holding firm.
It’s the first time since November that the number of homes sold has increased, says the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was almost unchanged (-0.2%) month-over-month, although it is still slightly down 3.5% compared with last year
Buying opportunities for upsizers and investors exist in many centres across Canada, most significantly in Toronto and Vancouver, but the improving data indicates this window will not last for long.
If you’re in a position to either invest for capital growth, or upsize to a bigger home for your family, you have a rare chance to maximise the value of your investment.
Falling mortgage costs are also playing in your favour.
The Bank of Canada didn’t cut rates at its last meeting, but mortgage costs have still fallen significantly thanks to seven successive reductions that have taken the cash rate to 2.75%. Just 12 months ago, the cash rate was almost double at 5%.
CREA’s Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart summed up the market turnaround with this quirky turn of phrase: “It’s only one month of data, and one car doesn’t make a parade. But there is a sense that maybe the expected turnaround in housing activity this year was just delayed for a few months by the initial tariff chaos and uncertainty.”
The 3.1% month-over-month rise in newly-listed properties is another signal the market mood is changing.
Some 201,880 properties are currently listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® systems, up 13.2% on last year.
CREA chair Valérie Paquin advised buyers to note the national trends but to look more closely at local market conditions.
Here is a quick breakdown of four bellwether markets:
Montreal – Year-on-year median prices for single-family homes and condo apartments are up 8.6% and 4.3% respectively. However, there was a 2% decline in prices between April and May, according to the Royal Bank of Canada. Buyers and sellers both have opportunities to strike good deals due to a nice balance between supply and demand. Sellers will make money with a five-star presentation, while buyers can still find a bargain.
Toronto – Home resales jumped 8.4% from April to May, which is a second successive monthly increase off a low base. Prices are down compared with a year ago, indicating good opportunities for upsizers and investors looking to capitalise on potential capital growth. Now is the time to buy in Toronto.
Vancouver – The number of homes for sale in Vancouver is at a 12-year high, which is punching down prices. The city has a lot of unsold condos, according to Royal Bank of Canada data. Average values are 2.9% lower than a year ago. While buyers can afford to take their time, the opportunities in Vancouver won’t last forever.
Calgary – Sales were 8% higher in May than in April. The people of Calgary appear less spooked by tariff threats and economic malaise than anyone else. Market activity remains above pre-pandemic levels and shows little sign of slowing. However, the city has not escaped the realities of market economics. Prices are 2.5% below last year’s value, and that hasn’t happened since May 2020.