New Zealand’s population is projected to grow 0.7% per year between 2018 and 2048, according to Stats NZ.
The fastest-growing regions are projected to be Waikato (1.0% per year), Bay of Plenty, Northland (0.9%), Auckland, Canterbury and Tasman (0.8%).
During the three decades to 2048, the North Island is projected to contribute 80% of New Zealand’s population growth and the South Island 20%.
And the four northernmost regions – Northland, Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty – which currently house 54% of the country’s population, are projected to contribute about 67% of the population growth.
All of New Zealand’s regions are projected to have higher populations in 2048 – except the West Coast.
The West Coast’s population, which was 32,700 in 2022, is projected to start declining in the early 2030s and fall to 30,000 by 2048.
“The decreasing population is due to more deaths than births, which may more than offset gains from net migration,” according to Stats NZ.
The Stats NZ projections are based on a series of assumptions, including that:
- Life expectancy will continue to increase, although at a decreasing rate
- The total fertility rate will fall from 1.70 births per woman in 2023 to 1.65 in 2042-48
- Net migration will be 25,000 people per year from 2026
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